A recent report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization shows global coffee prices surged nearly 39 percent in 2024, reaching a multi-year high.

Brazil, the world's largest coffee exporter, is facing a significant decline in coffee production as extreme weather conditions become the new norm.

Lei Xiangping has more. 

Coffe grower Osmar Junior speaks with China Central Television in Cerrado, Brazil. [Photo: China Media Group/Lei Xiangping]

Osmar Junior has been growing specialty coffee for over 40 years across several farms spanning 500 hectares in the Cerrado region of southeastern Brazil. Since 2021, his fields have been battered by droughts, frosts, and heatwaves, a fate shared by many farmers in one of Brazil's key coffee-producing areas.

Junior says this year's harvest outlook is grim.

"In Cerrado, there wasn't much rain at the end of February, and March brought really high temperatures that aren't good for coffee growth. The best temperature for coffee is about 26 to 28 degrees Celsius, but we had highs of 37 to 38 degrees. We usually start harvesting in mid-May and hope it doesn’t rain then because it can mess up the harvest. Unfortunately, local experts expect that farms here will see an average yield drop of about 26 percent this year, with some farms losing as much as 70 percent."

In late January, Brazil's National Supply Company predicted that the country's coffee production for the 2025 harvest season would fall to under 52 million bags, over 3.1 billion kilos, a 4.4 percent decrease from last year. In Minas Gerais, the largest coffee-producing state, output is expected to drop by nearly 12 percent.

The decline is already reshaping the global market.

Junior says many growers had pre-sold their 2025 crops at prices far below today's soaring rates.

"Due to the production drop, international coffee prices have risen sharply, but local growers aren't benefiting much. On one hand, we don't have coffee available to sell right now; on the other, most of this year's crop was pre-sold at lower prices. The price spike has sparked new interest in planting coffee in Cerrado this year, but three or four years from now, prices could fall again - and that might cause even more problems."

Osmar Junior's coffee farm in Cerrado, Brazil. [Photo: China Media Group/Lei Xiangping]

Junior's situation is echoed across Brazil. Simao Pedro de Lima is head of the Expocacer cooperative serving over 600 producers in Cerrado. He says the region’s yields continue to fall short of their potential.

"Over the past five years, coffee cultivation in Cerrado has been severely affected by unfavorable weather, with annual yields consistently below potential. As we approach the end of May and the harvest season, climate challenges persist - including the risk of frost following droughts. These are climate-driven problems affecting the entire Brazilian coffee industry."

In response, farmers are taking action. They're investing in advanced irrigation systems and testing more resilient coffee varieties.

President Antonio de Salvo of the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of Minas Gerais says modernization is now essential.

"Our challenge in Minas Gerais is to modernize the coffee industry to withstand climate change. We're introducing more technology into farming. Some coffee varieties developed 15 to 20 years ago can no longer survive today's conditions. We're replacing them with more productive, resilient, and cost-effective strains."

As climate change becomes a permanent hurdle for Brazil's coffee sector, growers say finding a balance between unpredictable weather and market demand will be one of their greatest challenges in the years ahead.