by Matthew Rusling

U.S. intelligence organizations are honing in on Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) as one of the most dangerous terror threats to date, raising questions of just how deadly the group is.

The Yemeni-based terror organization has come under increasing U.S. scrutiny since it claimed responsibility for an attempt to bomb a U.S. jetliner bound for Detroit last Christmas Day.

One of the AQAP's most prominent figures is U.S.-born Anwar al-Awlaki, who has been tied to the shootings in Fort Hood, Texas in which a U.S. Army psychiatrist was charged with the murders of 13 U.S. soldiers in November last year.

The organization is unlikely to conduct large-scale operations similar to the 9/11 attacks, in which militants took down the massive Twin Towers and destroyed a chunk of the Pentagon.

Rather, it is focusing on the use of small arms attacks and knives and clubs, as well as tapping the Internet to recruit foot soldiers to carry out smaller-scale operations, experts said.

Aaron Colvin, tactical analyst at global intelligence company Stratfor, said the real threat is that the organization's ability to think outside the box and circumvent U.S. security measures, as exemplified in the attack last Christmas Day in which a Nigerian man, Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab, smuggled an explosive device through airport security.

It was only when the device malfunctioned and set his pants on fire that the bomber was apprehended by fellow passengers.

Last year's Fort Hood incident also demonstrated the type of attack the group could launch in the future.

Such operations are easier to plan and execute than the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington and can be used effectively to spread the group's propaganda.

"A pistol or simple attack on a shopping mall would be a PR win for AQAP because it would engender the type of fear among the Western public they want," Colvin said. "At least in their minds, it demonstrates the organization's... ability to strike in the heart of America."

It would also help their recruiting efforts, as many impressionable individuals in both the Muslim and Western world could find such violence appealing, he added.

Such an attack could eventually translate to a greater U.S. military footprint in Yemen.

Indeed, one of Osama bin Laden's motivations for striking the United States on 9/11 was to goad the nation into a fight in Afghanistan in order to be able to directly strike American targets, Colvin said.

And the more the United States is drawn into military operations in the Middle East, the more it feeds the narrative common among radicals that Christianity is on a crusade against Islam.

Because they are easier to carry out, small scale attacks could become more frequent, he said.

A prime example of the type of operation the group could conduct is the April 2007 attack at Virginia Tech, in which a lone gunman killed 32 individuals simply using handguns in closed areas, he said.

Groups like the AQAP have learned that despite the PR value of large scale attacks, they carry more operational risks that could lead to failures, he said.

Purchasing ingredients for making some of the more devastating explosives, such as ammonium nitrate, could raise suspicions, and high yield explosive devises are difficult to assemble and increase the chances of a failed detonation, he said.

Another danger is group's English language capabilities -- it just put out its first English language magazine -- which could broaden its influence to the West.

An estimated 300 Americans -- fluent in English and holding U.S. passports -- are believed to have traveled to Yemen to offer their services to the group.

Reuters reported that the United States will likely increase strikes against the extremist organization, putting the same amount of pressure on the Yemeni branch as it is with Al-Qaeda in Pakistan.

While the United States is considering just how to do that, officials said no decision has been made, although Washington has in the past lobbed a number of cruise missiles at extremist targets in Yemen.