Analysis: Party Unity off the Table as DPJ Presidential Election Battle Heats up

Senior lawmakers of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) are working feverishly Monday to mediate an epic inter-party showdown between Prime Minister Naoto Kan and former party Secretary-General Ichiro Ozawa, who has openly challenged the prime minister for the party's top post as DPJ President.

Kan was seeking a smooth, uncontested re-election as party chief, but Ozawa's reemergence onto the political season is proving to be a fly in the ointment for the embattled prime minister who suffered an embarrassing upset by not seeing his party's power consolidated in the recent Upper House election and is battling to keep the nation's export-led recovery viable, despite an irrepressibly strong yen.

Regarding the Sept. 14 election Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku told reporters recently that without mediation things are heading towards a head-on crash, but conceded that even he himself, as a staunch ally of Kan, has no means to ally the situation.

Campaigning will officially begin on Wednesday, but it is widely believed in political circles that an emergency meeting between the two political titans may take place as early as Monday evening to try and avoid a potentially damaging an irrevocable rift in the party being caused by the clash.

FALL OUT

"Yukio Hatoyama has tried to mediate this situation, but I don' t think it will do any good. Ichiro Ozawa wants the limelight back and feels that now is his time. He's been waiting in the wings for this opportunity and let's face it, he's always been a vocal critic of (Prime Minister) Naoto Kan and not all lawmakers have made up their minds which way they'll vote," political commentator and Shizuoka-based author Philip McNeil told Xinhua.

"Either way I feel Ozawa wins. If he loses the election, which he likely will, he has enough influence over lawmakers to create a massive rift in the DPJ and go out in an almighty bang of notoriety until he negotiates his way back into a position of ( more) power."

"Should he win and take the premiership, he has a shot at the Holy Grail, the grand political realignment that would give him the real political clout he seems to savor so much," McNeil said.

Whatever the result, most political pundits are not viewing this highly publicized showdown as a good thing for a nation already trying to find its political foothold at a time when the economy, at best, is stammering.

The political fallout following the election will be massive. The loser, unlike in the past when senior positions were guaranteed, will be as good as exiled.

However, what will remain will be a party divided into pro-and anti-Ozawa factions. Kan has himself denied the possibility of a split, but Ozawa is reported to be an old-hand at dividing parties, as his legacy attests.

OMNIPOTENT OZAWA

Ozawa whether physically present or not has a massive presence in and outside the DPJ, which swept to power in the House of Representatives election one year ago.

Despite his alleged involvement in political funds scandals which he has yet to fully account for the pro-Ozawa group consists of 150 lawmakers, more than a third of the party's tally of 412.

Added to that former DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama, who leads the second-largest faction in the party with about 60 members pulling a U-turn away from Kan to support Ozawa, and, statistically, Ozawa has secured half of the party's powerful legislators.

Granted, the anti-Ozawa camp is sizable too and the general public seem opposed to the idea of the former secretary general becoming the party's leader, but it would appear that the seeds of destruction have already been planted.

If Ozawa is defeated, he could bolt and start his own party. After all it wouldn't be the first time.

Historically, public opinion polls are not the most accurate gauge of party head elections, but Kan will be hoping that public sentiment will influence party members' decision making and ensure his immediate future as the party and the nation's leader.

73 percent of voters surveyed by the Nikkei newspaper over the weekend said they wanted to Kan stay in office, compared with just 17 percent who hoped for Ozawa's victory.

Similarly, a poll by the Yomiuri Shimbun showed 67 percent of respondents favored Kan compared to just 14 percent for his opponent. 70 percent of voters surveyed by Kyodo News said they supported Kan, compared with some 16 percent for Ozawa.

Although perhaps slightly worrying for Kan, of some of those surveyed their support for Kan was due to no suitable alternatives being available, not necessarily because he had convinced them of his superlative leadership skills.

In the case that Kan loses, Japan will likely see its third prime minister since the DPJ took power in September and the 6th national leader in less than four years, following an untimely general election that some say is all in the political kingpin's design.

"Many seem to think that Ozawa's becoming DPJ leader would be the catalyst for the long-awaited political realignment (although Your Party's Watanabe Yoshimi insists that the DPJ will break regardless of what Ozawa does)," said Tobias Harris, a notable Japanese political specialist who previously worked for a DPJ member of the upper house of the Diet

"It is easy enough to see how Ozawa could trigger the realignment. Remember the "purge" of Ozawa loyalists that marked the transition from Hatoyama to Kan? Presumably the "magistrates" who opposed Ozawa and have occupied important positions under Kan would have little to look forward to under Ozawa, and would have two options outside of the cabinet: build anti-mainstream " factions" within the DPJ to challenge Ozawa, thereby completing the 'LDP-ization' of the DPJ, or leave the party altogether to join with Watanabe or form yet another new political party," Harris said.

Kan is expected to formally announce his reelection bid Tuesday, the day before official campaigning for the DPJ presidential race begins and the fear now is that with the economy in a dire situation, regardless of the outcome of the election the post- election in-fighting will make the passing of key legislation through both parliamentary caucuses a cumbersome problem and one which will undoubtedly hinder the progress of Japan's economic future.

"As a country Japan really doesn't need this right now. We've seen some embryonic moves by the government and the Bank of Japan to steno the rising yen and inject more stimulus into the economy to get things moving," said McNeil.

"But post-election jockeying and wrangling will only mean the bills needed to get Japan's economy back on track will take longer to be passed and the further Japan falls back into an economic maelstrom, the more chance of a total DPJ meltdown and who would this best serve? The omnipotent kingpin."

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