by Song Dan and Xu Yanyan

The campaigner bloc led by current Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has taken strong leads in seven of Iraq's 18 provinces, according to the latest partial results of the parliamentary elections released by the electoral commission.

However, things could be different after the final tally is expected to comes out in days, and it's still too early to say whether Maliki can save his second term as prime minister.

CLOSE RACE BETWEEN MAIN RIVALS

According to the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission ( IHEC), partial tallies from all of the country's 18 provinces showed that Maliki is ahead in the largely Shiite south, while secularist rival Iraqia bloc, led by former prime minister Ayad Allawi fared well among Iraq's Sunni minority.

Maliki took lead in two of Iraq's three biggest constituencies, Baghdad and Basra. Besides, He was ahead in the southern Shiite provinces of Babil, Najaf, Karbala and Muthana, along with Wasit.

Meanwhile, Allawi's Iraqia List, widely regarded as the chief rival to Maliki's State of Law coalition in the election, came in second with his leading in five provinces, Diyala, Salahuddin, Anbar, Nineveh and Tamim.

Compared with the above two major blocs, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) led by Shiite cleric groups were leading in Maysan, Diwaniyah and Dhi Qar. Unsurprisingly, the Kurdish bloc was taking lead in three northern provinces of Arbil, Duhuk and Sulaymaniyah.

Local observers have said the race between Maliki and Allawi could be very close.

JUST PARTIAL RESULTS

Up till now, all the results released were just partial returns based on less than one third counted votes of the total ballots. These results are too partial to draw decisive conclusions in those 18 provinces, and the uncompleted counting results seemed even less indicative for announcement of an overall victory. The ultimate results may probably turn another way.

The total tally results from main election areas like Baghdad which accounts the biggest share of 70 seats are yet to be unveiled.

The 2010 Iraqi National Parliamentary Election is doomed to be a tough one. People can remember that it took more than five months for the political elites to form a government after last parliamentary election in 2005.

Before the final results, all the political entities and the entire country will be overshadowed in uncertainty, which may brew political bargains among the front runners. This is the moment when the real reconciliation progress between different blocs is actually taking place.

POLITICAL BARGAINING UNDER WAY

A series of intense bargaining and negotiation already began after last Sunday's voting.

Before the IHEC releases the final results of the whole country, there are still days for Iraqis to predigest its inner political conflict and get deals settled among influential figures. During these days, splits will emerge between temporary allies and new coalitions will be forged.

Analysts said Maliki and Allawi are welcoming their future partners with open arms. The next episode of the process people are about to witness is that big blocs would soak up smaller entities to get enough seats. Promises will be made and ministry posts will be distributed in return of support.

Maliki's State of Law coalition has already formed a committee to hold talks with rival parties on forming the next government, an official of the bloc told media.

On Saturday, Allawi met with Kurdish regional president Massud Barzani in Arbil, the capital of Kurdistan region, local media reported. He also met with Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani and leaders of the Sunni Awakening movement and the Islamic Supreme Council.

Early on Friday, an INA candidate, Shiite Vice President Adel Abdel Mahdi, met with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Barzani, according to Barzani's office.

NOT EASY FOR MALIKI THIS TIME

Observers said the close race showed by the early partial results would make it harder for Maliki to grab enough seats to secure a second term.

Maliki's main rival and potential partners all insist that he should step down and leave the prime minister post to other candidates.

The top concern of the United States who is eager to withdraw its troops in time, is the validity of the parliamentary election. The United States will try its best not to let the legitimacy of the elections be questioned. But who will be the next leader?

Based on the past unpleasant experiences when Americans went through in meddling with Iraq's inner affairs, the United States would rather let the Iraqis decide by themselves.

Local analysts said it's clear that no single bloc can win an outright majority in the Council of Representatives, which means the next government will be formed by more than one bloc. Who will handshake their way to the new government? The answer is: possible combinations are still brewing in negotiations.