by David Harris

There were fewer Palestinian attacks against Israelis last year than there have been in any year since 2000, according to a report published this week by the Israel Security Agency (ISA), known to Israelis as the Shin Bet.

Some 15 Israelis were killed during the year compared to 36 in 2008. Most of the attacks occurred during Israel's military operation in and around the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip that ended in January 2009.

Israeli strategists and politicians are convinced that the military operation known as "Cast Lead" was directly responsible for the decrease in attacks, but analysts warn that the current comparative calm may not last for ever.

2009

While the year past was not just about Gaza, it certainly dominated the attack agenda. The number of rocket attacks before " Cast Lead" reached an annual 2,000 plus in 2008, according to the ISA. In 2009 that figure dropped to 566, of which 406 fell during the military operation in January.

"At the same time, Israel has managed to thwart dozens of attempts by Gaza Strip-based terrorist organizations to execute attacks in its territory using armed perpetrators," the report continued.

Since the Gaza operation ended, Hamas and other Gaza-based armed organizations have focused on rebuilding military power, including longer-range rockets, and improving the network of smuggling.

Shlomo Brom, a senior research fellow in the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, noted that while international media attention has been on Gaza, the level of militant activity in the West Bank also decreased.

Israel has succeeded in destroying much of the "terror infrastructure" in the West Bank, Brom told Xinhua on Monday. Not only that, Israel also carried out anti-terror operations every day. Palestinians are arrested each night by soldiers who enter Palestinian towns and villages to capture alleged terrorists.

This type of activity is known as "lawn mowing" because in order to ensure that attacks on Israelis do not keep recurring the "terror infrastructure" has to be "mown" at regular intervals.

PALESTINIAN CONTRIBUTION

Not only has Israel been successful in countering the terror threat, but so too has the Palestinian National Authority (PNA).

Over the last couple of years the Palestinian security forces loyal to Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas have been given far more freedom to operate by the Israelis and have received considerable training by the United States, with the help of Jordan.

"I have heard that the current cooperation (with Israel) is the best there has been, even better than in the good days of the 1990s," said Brom.

Israel's controversial security barrier, called the apartheid wall by many Palestinians, has also played a role in preventing armed Palestinians from reaching Israel's main conurbations. Indeed, there were no suicide bombings in Israel during 2009 compared to 53 in 2002, before work on the current barrier began.

However, Brom said there are still gaps in the barrier and so he believes the Israeli and Palestinian security forces played far more of a role than the barrier in the reduction in attacks.

SLEEP EASY?

Asked whether the violence will return, Israeli analysts are somewhat circumspect. Jonathan Fighel, a senior researcher at the International Institute for Counter Terrorism at Israel's Interdisciplinary Center, explains that terror is merely a means to an end. As a result it is impossible to predict if and when attacks will be launched.

Terror is used by organizations in order to achieve their goals. Fighel argued that right now it is in Hamas' interest, for example, to reduce the number of strikes on Israeli targets from Gaza.

"It is impossible to predict because it all depends on the diplomatic and political developments both on the regional and internal Palestinian levels," he said.

The militant groups also have to factor in that Israel is attempting to minimize their ability to act, and that too can reduce their motivation, he added.

Among the issues Hamas must take into account right now is knowing that if it launches strikes against Israel it will once again face major losses, as in all likelihood will the civilian population of Gaza.

Diplomatically, Hamas is locked in indirect talks with Israel for the release of about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners currently held in Israeli jails. Any major attack on Israel would likely bury that deal.

At the same time, Hamas is involved in ongoing talks with its rival Palestinian faction Fatah, while bearing in mind that elections could take place in the Palestinian territories as early as June. Rocking the boat with attacks could end its chances for any political gain.

Another factor Hamas must bear in mind is its difficult relationship with Egypt right now. Cairo has been trying to cut a deal between Hamas and Fatah but to no avail. Of late Cairo seems to have adopted a similar position towards Hamas to that held by Israel and the United States.

Hamas understands the importance of Egypt in the region and may not want to upset the apple cart too much by launching attacks at such a sensitive time.

As far as the ISA is concerned, its work will continue for the foreseeable future. Its report spoke of the terror threat from Israeli Jews against Palestinians and from Israeli Arabs towards Israeli Jews.

The ISA emphasized the need to stem the money flow to militant groups and warned that in addition to the traditional armed organizations, Israel also faces threats from new small groups and from what has become known as global Jihad, which may attempt to carry out its attacks in Israel or against Israeli and Jewish interests overseas.

"We can all breathe but between breaths we must keep one eye open because the terror is not going away. It is alive. There are enough reasons and groups that are willing to use it," warned Fighel.