The global financial crisis will see a marked GDP slowdown everywhere, the World Bank said in a latest forecast released Tuesday, with world trade projected to fall next year for the first time since 1982 and capital flows to developing countries predicted to plunge by 50 percent.
The report, Global Economic Prospects 2009, predicts that global GDP growth will slip from 2.5 percent in 2008 to 0.9 percent in 2009. Developing country growth, which had previously been strong, is expected to decline from 7.9 percent in 2007 to 4.5 percent in 2009. Growth in rich countries next year will likely be negative.
With tighter credit conditions and less appetite for risk, investment growth in the developing world is projected to fall from 13 percent in the 2007 to 3.5 percent in 2009, a figure which is deeply significant because a third of GDP growth can be attributed to it.
Economists at the World Bank also project that world trade will contract by 2.1 percent in 2009, the first time since 1982 that world trade will shrink.
All countries will be affected by the drop in exports, which reflects not only the sharp slowdown in global demand, but also the reduced availability of export credits, according to the forecast.
China's growth is projected to slow from 9.4 percent in 2008 to 7.5 percent in 2009, but the government's recently announced 586 billion US dollar stimulus program may edge China's growth back to 8.5 percent in 2010. |