China Construction Bank Corp's stock could jump by as much as 48 pct when it debuts on the Shanghai Stock exchange later this month, analysts said.
Such a large rise would move the bank's mainland stock price well beyond its initial public offering price of 6.45 yuan and the 7.12 hkd midday price on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
'We estimate the reasonable price for CCB will be 8.8 yuan, with a floating range from 8 yuan to 9.6 yuan,' said Wu Yonggang, an analyst at Guotai Jun'an Securities. 'I expect the share price to hit the upper limit of 9.6 yuan, much higher than the H-share price.'
The bank's stock may rise 30 pct to 50 pct based on valuations of similar stocks and demand in the market, said Cao Xuefeng, an analyst at West China Securities in Chengdu in southwestern Sichuan Province.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has more than doubled since the start of the year. It ended the day down 29.94 points or 0.55 pct at 5,395.27.
The forecast surge in China Construction Bank's opening price would push it past the share price of the other big four banks in mainland China.
'CCB's valuation will be higher than Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China after listing,' said Zhang Pan, an analyst at TX Investment Consulting Co in Beijing.
The bank has gained investor confidence because of sound revenue and stability, Zhang said.
ICBC ended the day down 0.05 yuan at 6.48 yuan on the Shanghai exchange, while Bank of China was down 0.06 yuan at 5.94 yuan.
China Construction Bank's Hong Kong share price has risen around 30 pct this year, while ICBC's has remained stagnant and Bank of China's share price has fallen off considerably.
But China Construction Bank's valuation might be lower than listed city commercial banks, such as the Bank of Beijing, because investors are more optimistic of their future growth, Zhang said.
The Bank of Beijing closed up more than 81 pct today, or 10.18 yuan, at 22.68 today during its first day of trading in Shanghai.
China Construction Bank raised 58.05 bln yuan yesterday from issuing 9 bln A-shares in Shanghai at the top range price of 6.45 yuan per share, the majority to individual investors.
The company's stock is scheduled to begin trading on Sept 25 on the Shanghai stock market.
The bank, listed in Hong Kong in October 2005, was founded as a wholly-owned state bank in 1954 tasked to manage and disburse government funds for building public infrastructure. It has more than 13,600 branches in China and some international operations. |