China's trade surplus is likely to drop from 39.6 billion US dollars in the first six months to 30 billion dollars in the latter half year, said a report with the State Information Center.
Slight appreciation of Renminbi, slowdown of the world economy and slower growth in foreign investment would affect China's foreign trade, the report said.
The growth rate of exports would drop and the gap between imports and exports would be narrowed, the report estimated.
The exports and the imports are estimated to grow at 22 percent and 18 percent respectively in the latter half year, said the report.
As a result, the driving force of net imports to the national economy would be weaker this year than in 2004, the report said.
Statistics with the Ministry of Commerce showed that in the first six months this year, China's foreign trade totaled 645.03 billion dollars, up 23.2 percent year-on-year. The trade surplus in the period soared to 39.6 billion dollars, even higher than the whole year's figure in 2004.
On one hand, the soaring trade surplus indicates that Chinese businesses are getting mature in the international market, the report said.
On the other hand, the surplus rise in the first six months is partly caused by special factors of expectation of Renminbi's appreciation, structure change in fixed assets investment and price hike of oil in the international market, the report analyzed.
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