Chances of a peaceful withdrawal of British troops from Iraq are "minimal" unless London adopts a huge policy shift and breaks away from Washington, a report released by a British NGO said on Wednesday.

The report by the Oxford Research Group entitled "Iraq and the War on Terror: Twelve Months of Insurgency, 2004/2005" added that the war in the Middle East country was only in its "early stages."

"Given that the Al-Qaeda movement and its affiliates are seeking to achieve their aims over a period of decades rather than years, the probability is that, short of major political changes in the USA, the Iraq war might well be measured over a similar time span," the report said.

It continued: "The likelihood of a peaceful withdrawal of UK troops from Iraq is minimal unless London breaks with Washington. This would be a major policy shift for the Blair government, representing the sharpest difference in its relationship with Washington in the past eight years", the report concluded.

The occupation of Iraq since the US-led invasion in March 2003 was proving to be a "gift" to the Al-Qaeda movement, which successfully presented the US presence as a neo-Christian occupation of a major Islamic state, said the report.

Assuring Iraq's security and the presence of a friendly government in the country was an essential part of American security policy even if it required a permanent US military presence, the report noted, adding that that would allow the US, which is becoming increasingly dependent on imported oil, long-term access to the Middle East country's crude supplies.

A US withdrawal would be "a foreign policy disaster for them greater than the retreat from Vietnam", and it would take a fundamental change of policy in Washington for this to happen, the report said.

The report also pointed out that the al-Qaeda movement would gain strength from this very occupation.

Britain, a staunch US ally during the Iraq war, is positioning some 8,500 troops in Iraq, mostly deployed in the south of the country near Basra.

Prime Minister Tony Blair said last Monday that British troops could start withdrawing from Iraq next year.
On October, Defense Secretary John Reid told the House of Commons that Britain would cut its troops in Iraq by about 500 to 8,000 in November.

(Source: Xinhua)