The most recent warning against Taiwan independence has come from Australia and Singapore, both allies of the United States, the only biggest arms provider to the island. They both voice worry over potential military conflicts across the Taiwan Straits.

Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said during his visit to Northeast Asia that his country, though with a security treaty with Washington, may not automatically side with the US if a war breaks out between China the US over Taiwan. The remarks were made under the presumption that the US gets itself involved in a military conflict between the mainland and Taiwan, which seems more and more likely with the island’s authorities pressing on an independence road.

Downer has been criticized over the statement for undermining the country’s ties with Washington, nonetheless, his warning against the independence-minded Taiwan leadership is clearly being felt.

Taiwan says it is angry and disappointed.

Canberra is working to maintain traditional links with Washington, but at the same time, fostering booming economic and trade ties with other countries, in particular, China, its fastest growing trading partner. Beijing weighs nearly as much significance to Australia in economic field as the US does in the fields of politics and national security.

One reason for why an independent Taiwan looks unrealistic has been the rising economic dominance of the Chinese mainland, which increasingly becomes a useful diplomatic leverage to chips away at Taiwan’s “international space,” as it’s said. This is in addition to a mighty Chinese military force. To gain independence, Taiwan has to surmount the insurmountable restraint, both diplomatic and military. And an almost definite outcome of the independence road would be devastating to the people in the island.

This point is better explained in a national speech by the new Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Long, who commented on Taiwan’s moving toward independence and said “China will fight. Win or lose, Taiwan will be devastated.” Unfortunately, said Mr. Lee, he met very few Taiwanese leaders who recognize the reality during his visit to the island last month.

The Singaporean leader said his country would not back the island if it provokes a war with the mainland, another heavy blow to the independent forces in Taiwan. Lee Hsien Loong warns his country will not recognize an independent Taiwan, nor do Asian countries, nor countries in Europe.

“The cross-straits issue is not a permanent problem because it will be resolved sooner or later … … China will continue to grow, and Taiwan's economy will progressively be integrated with China's. This process is inexorable; there can be no other final outcome," said Mr Lee.

His view is echoed in an editorial carried by the Sydney Morning Herald. It notes “a rising China and the increasing integration of Taiwan's and China's economies means there can be only one final outcome. Taiwan's long-term future lies with China.”

Unhappy with Lee’s remarks, Taiwan authorities accuse the Singaporean leader of mending fences with Beijing, saying Lee made the comment because he is under a lot of pressure from the mainland. The charges somehow hold water, as Lee’s visit, which is considered as infringing upon China’s core national interests, does meet strong reaction from Beijing.

Nevertheless, Lee Hisen Loong’s desire to restore the damaged ties with Beijing itself indicates how much China weighs in other country’s foreign policy deliberation. The influential Sydney Morning Herald goes on to say that Singapore has said what the US cannot.